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Political pilgrims rarely understand the agony of those who actually vote

By PRABHU CHAWLA

05th May 2013 06:51 AM

Elections don’t decide the fate of politicians alone.  Nowadays, electoral verdicts too define or demolish the image of many self-appointed political astrologers, number-crunchers, opinion-makers, spin doctors and even master strategists of various political parties. Such a fate awaits many of them as the Karnataka Assembly election results are expected on Wednesday.

Of course, the flavour of the month seems to be the Congress party. Since opinions are disseminated as news, and real news as mere speculation, Karnataka is going to be a real test case for the media and scores of byte smiths-turned-TVrattis of every colour and conviction. Karnataka will either explode or reinforce the general belief that now it is leaders, and not parties, who win elections in the states. Karnataka is perhaps the only state in which the battle is between individuals and a faceless national party. Unlike many other states which went to the polls recently, Karnataka’s voters will have to choose between two national and two regional parties. 

If we go by the opinion polls, the odds are heavily stacked against both the BJP and Janata Dal(S) led by former prime minister H D Deve Gowda and his son, former chief minister H D Kumaraswamy. The opinion that both are doomed has been further strengthened by anecdotes from political pilgrims on seasonal visits to the state. Such pilgrimages to election-bound states have always been aimed at finding space for a brahminical order dominated by the Congress culture. In UP last year, armed with opinion polls or ground reports, the soothsayers were pushing the idea of a Congress-supported SP-led government. In the end, Samajwadi Party won an absolute majority, with the Congress barely in fourth position. 

Since these political augurs hardly understand the local language or the agony of those who actually vote, they end up meeting only those who fall in the category of “me, mine and my type”. B S Yeddyurappa and Kumaraswamy are alien to their culture. It is only the likes of foreign-educated S M Krishna and his ilk who represent the voice and pulse of the people—they are the only ones who understand the idiom of communication and dictate the narrative of electoral politics.

There is no doubt that the BJP provided Karnataka with one of the most corrupt governments ever. It is also a fact that the Gowdas are shining examples of political opportunism. But both parties won or lost elections because of individuals and not ideology. On the contrary, the Congress has an ideology but doesn’t have a leader who can be trusted to provide a strong leadership to steer the state out of the mess. On the other hand, local voters know the three chief ministerial contenders—Kumaraswamy, Jagdish Shettar and Yeddyurappa. According to television reports, almost all local leaders have been drawing crowds bigger than most national leaders. Manmohan Singh’s Bangalore meeting was delayed for half an hour because there weren’t enough crowds. Barring Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, hardly any national leader made his presence felt in the state.

Since the Congress has been out of power for almost a decade now in Karnataka, it is finding it difficult to project any leader. All its honchos like Krishna, Veerappa Moily, Mallikarjun Kharge and others don’t enjoy pan-Karnataka acceptability and have been out of active state politics. But the pollsters parrot that Karnataka is turning out to be an exception and its people may vote for a national party, but not a regional leader. In more than half the states such as Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Himachal Pradesh and even Pudducherry, the electorate has always voted for a leader who was projected as future CM. Moreover, wherever the choice was between an incumbent national and a local party, the voters have always defeated the former and chosen the latter. For example, in 1989, the Congress decided to go it alone in Tamil Nadu under G K Moopanar’s leadership, but it was the DMK that came to power.

In Karnataka too, the undivided Janata Dal led by Deve Gowda defeated the Congress in 1995 to form the government. So, poll predictions in favour of the Congress not only indicate a trend that is witnessed in the rest of the country but also contradict opinion polls. Almost all opinion polls have confirmed that Kumaraswamy is the most popular candidate for the Karnataka chief ministership followed by Yeddyurappa. According to the prognosticators, however, the Congress would get the maximum votes. The BJP and JD(S) are solidly backed by two dominant communities—the Vokkaligas and Lingayats—while none of Karnataka’s major communities back the Congress. Even in 2008, it polled the highest percentage of votes, but it was BJP that won a near majority with fewer votes. For the Congress to win an absolute majority, it will have to break the caste and community coalition, which is heavily positioned against it at the moment.

There are many more flaws and inconsistencies in political astrology. For example, there appears to be a strong anti-incumbency wave against the BJP, but less against the chief minister. Similarly, there is hardly any negative outrage against Kumaraswamy, who is perceived as one of the most decisive chief ministers the state has seen in recent times. The Karnataka verdict has a bigger significance for national politics. Besides deciding the survival of the UPA in Delhi, it will also define the future contours of national politics. A Congress victory in Karnataka would mean the erosion of regional parties and the downfall of local satraps. A mutilated Hand would cripple a 120-year-old party and its ability to retain  authority.

Prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com

Follow him on Twitter @PrabhuChawla

The Supreme Court has strongly endorsed the role of the gram sabhas as democratic decision-making fora on issues of individual, community and cultural rights of tribals and traditional forest dwellers. Its recent ruling in the Niyamgiri bauxite mining case has far-reaching impact because environmental laws such as the Forest (Conservation) Act, the Forest Rights Act and the Environment (Protection) Act are given scant respect by industrial project proponents looking for natural resources. This trend has accelerated in recent years, with national development being measured by a single number, the Gross Domestic Product. Under pressure, the Ministry of Environment and Forests has generally adopted a benign approach to enforcement. In the bauxite mining project promoted by the Vedanta group in Odisha, the Ministry made a welcome exception and recorded “violations too egregious to be glossed over.” The Supreme Court order in the case, endorsing the rights of tribals under the Forest Rights Act and the Panchayat (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act to make fresh claims and designating the gram sabhas as the competent fora to decide them, should end strong arm measures against defenceless communities. It is beyond doubt that there is an organic connection between tribals and the land, and this has been accepted by the Supreme Court in another case in 1997. That bond must be respected.

Besides this fundamental issue, several key questions relating to negative externalities caused by development projects have also been addressed: diversion of forest land for industry should be compensated through payment of Net Present Value; separate funds must be earmarked for compensatory afforestation and wildlife management; designated pre-tax profits should be allocated for development of scheduled areas. Unfortunately, such basic requirements are often portrayed as impediments to economic growth, and environmental losses stand ignored. Moreover, a transparent, independent assessment mechanism to monitor implementation of conditions set for grant of clearance does not exist. In Odisha, for instance, environmental rules and conditions were brazenly violated by Vedanta Alumina when it launched the expansion of its project before clearance was given, a fact recorded by the Saxena committee of the Environment Ministry. Now that the gram sabhas, and thereafter the MoEF have another opportunity to revisit the Niyamgiri project, they must ensure that tribal rights are recognised. The Supreme Court order is a good precedent for all projects that have environmental and social consequences. Development is a natural aspiration, but it must be genuine and not result in the loss of even the existing quality of life.

Keywords: Vedanta bauxite mining project, Niyamgiri Hills, Niyamgiri project, Dongria Kondh tribals, Supreme Court, tribals rights

The acquittal of Congress leader Sajjan Kumar in a 1984 riot case extinguishes every glimmer of hope for substantial justice to the Sikh victims of the bloody pogrom that took place in the nation’s capital in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi’s assassination. The judge found three men guilty of murder and two of rioting, but was not convinced that Mr. Kumar had instigated the riots. The verdict is bound to reinforce the view that politically well-connected persons will continue to evade the law, helped as they are by an excruciatingly slow judicial process, manipulated investigations and shoddy prosecutions. The positive feature of Judge J.R. Aryan’s 129-page verdict is that it recognises the value of the testimony of the first prosecution witness Jagdish Kaur despite 28 years having elapsed since her husband, son and three cousins were killed in the Raj Nagar area of Delhi Cantonment. However, her credibility, according to the court, is limited to her account of these five deaths and does not extend to her claim that she had seen Mr. Kumar, then the local MP, addressing a crowd of supporters, while she was on her way to the police station on the morning of November 2, 1984. And two other witnesses who sought to corroborate her version, also failed to convince the trial judge. It did not help matters that Ms Kaur, who testified about Mr. Kumar’s role before the Justice Nanavati Panel in 2000, had, presumably out of fear, omitted mention of the Congress leader in her submission to the Justice Ranganath Misra Commission soon after the massacres.

While appreciating the Central Bureau of Investigation for persisting with its charges against Mr. Kumar despite the complicity of sections of the Delhi police with the suspects in the early stages, one must fault the agency for limiting its charge sheet to simple oral testimony by witnesses that they had seen Mr. Kumar berating his supporters for not doing enough damage to the Sikhs and warning that even Hindus offering shelter to them must be killed and their houses burnt. Given the deliberate inaction on the part of the Delhi police and, in some cases, its active collaboration, the agency ought to have more diligently pursued a possible conspiracy angle. There is not a whisper in the testimony discussed in the verdict on the party affiliations of the rioters, or how the mob came to assemble in the area or the extent of planning and coordination behind the organised riots. Sadly, at no stage has any investigation seriously attempted to grapple with the vital element of political complicity, a curious omission since the thugs who wreaked murder and arson across the national capital for three days were only executing what someone in authority had deliberately willed. Until the time these instigators are identified and punished, 1984 will always haunt the conscience of India.

Keywords: Congress leader Sajjan Kumar, Anti-Sikh riots trial, Indira Gandhi assassination, 1984 Anti-Sikh riots, Sajjan Kumar acquittal

In its annual monetary policy statement for 2013-14, the Reserve Bank of India was not expected to depart from the cautious stance that has characterised its recent policy statements. Therefore, the reduction in the policy repo rate by just 0.25 percentage points to 7.25 per cent has not caused much disappointment, although there were some who were hoping for a similar cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio too. Whatever expectations there were of more generous monetary easing were dashed by the RBI’s report on the macro economy which was released a day ahead as a backdrop to the monetary policy statement. The report, after listing various macro-financial risks, said that “the space for action for 2013-14 remains very limited.” In its March policy statement too the RBI had conveyed the same message. These statements are, however, not cast in stone and much would depend on the rapidly changing growth-inflation dynamic in India and abroad. For now, inflation remains a big worry, even though WPI inflation for March 2013 had turned out to be lower than the RBI estimate. For 2013-14, the RBI expects it to be range bound, at around 5.5 per cent, with the March 2014 target even lower at 5 per cent. The Consumer Price Index-based inflation rate remains in double digits, a point surprisingly not highlighted by the RBI.

Economic growth during the current year is expected to be not more than 5.7 per cent, which is far lower than the 6.4-6.5 per cent that the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council and, earlier, the budget had estimated. This is another instance of the central bank being cautious, no doubt prompted by its expectation of sluggish performance in both industry and services. Interestingly, the RBI’s baseline growth projection of 5.5 per cent for last year turned out to be higher than the official estimate of 5 per cent. Among the major macroeconomic risks, the biggest is the current account deficit, which last year was at its historic high and well above the 2.5 per cent level which the RBI considers to be sustainable. As much as the size of the CAD, its financing exposes the economy to the risk of sudden stop and reversal of capital flows. The advanced economies from where these flows originate themselves face an uncertain economic outlook. Within India, a growth revival is not possible without a revival in investment. But business confidence is at a low and both borrowers and lenders have become risk averse. Finally, the effectiveness of monetary policy in easing inflation pressures could be undermined by supply constraints in the economy, especially in critical areas like food and infrastructure.

Keywords: RBI, CRR, Annual Monetary Policy, CAD, Inflation, repo rate, Indian economy

The economic vulnerabilities that confront households in the current sluggish recovery from the global meltdown are aggravating the fight against child labour, says the International Labour Organisation. Its latest report emphasises the need for universal coverage of at least a minimum level of social security to help some 215 million working children. Half that number is trapped in the worst forms of child labour — work akin to slavery, debt bondage, child prostitution and hazardous occupations harmful to health and safety. To be sure, the number of child workers did drop by some 30 million in the last decade. But job losses in the adult population in the wake of the global financial crisis and shocks related to crop failure and recurrent freak weather patterns are threatening a reversal of recent gains. The report collates findings from various studies that establish a clear correlation between adverse macro-economic indicators and the recourse to child labour. Correspondingly, cash transfers are known to prove effective in reducing child labour in Asia and Latin America, subject to supply-side conditions such as the availability of education facilities. Similarly, in many African countries where parents have been lost to the HIV/AIDS epidemic, social protection measures such as health insurance, targeted at the elderly, ensure uninterrupted school attendance among children.

It is abundantly clear then that the elimination of child labour is predicated upon making progress on many fronts. Getting kids to go to school, a key priority that drove the abolition campaign a decade ago, is obviously a necessary but not sufficient condition for the eradication of child labour. Surely, there has been a surge in enrolments in recent years and there has even been some talk of devising ways to retain wards beyond primary school. But all of this presupposes a sound overall policy framework to be sustained over the long term. A scenario where as much as 75 per cent of the global population (more than 5 billion people) has no access to comprehensive social protection, as per ILO estimates, hardly inspires confidence in the capacity of countries to kick start the lives of millions. To make headway, governments must be prepared to spend more. A hugely influential 2010 study which claimed that public debt ratios in excess of 90 per cent of gross domestic product would automatically lead to a decline in growth has recently been exposed as relying on erroneous calculations, a fact conceded by its authors. Several governments that have so far persisted with crippling austerity measures to cut back on welfare spending, with severe socio-political ramifications, should reconsider their stance.

Keywords: child labour, International Labour Organisation, Social security, child rights, child prostitution, school dropouts